Avoid the Temptation of Common Sense, Says Researcher Duncan Watts .

Social science researcher Duncan Watts says we are too trusting of common sense. We fool ourselves into thinking we can explain how influence and innovation happen, when we actually have no idea.

Watts`s new book, "Everything is Obvious, Once You Know the Answer," argues that the problems of social systems require rigorous study just like physics and engineering (where Watts started his career).

But because we are all humans trying to have sense of the globe and how we connect to each other, we separate ourselves stories about why things inevitably happened that appear to suffice.

The right thing is, now that we`re putting all this personal information online and having all so many of our interactions documented, we may be capable to better study ourselves.

It`s vulgar sense to suppose that influential people start social trends, a la Malcolm Gladwell`s "The Tipping Point." But Watts points out that marketers have difficulty identifying "influencers" in advance, and more specifically, in his research, "ordinary influencers" can more expeditiously and predictably spread influence on Twitter than Kim Kardashian.

"I`m not saying that people don`t influence each other, but actually trying to show influence in actual life in social networks or social media turns out to be a really difficult problem, and often the results are disappointing," Watts, who is a chief research scientist at Yahoo, said in a tv interview with NetworkEffect.

On the other hand, Watts said he is more prepared to face with Gladwell`s skepticism about social media inciting recent revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East. But, of course, he thinks the matter merits further study.

Watts is exceedingly well respected in his study for his work of social networks. Lucky for readers, Watts` bias against storytelling doesn`t lead to his book. He uses anecdotes about how the Mona Lisa became famous, why drunk driving crimes shouldn`t necessarily be judged on the outcome, and how Cisco fell from glory despite consistent management and strategy-with just a few charts and graphs.

Watts` right-place-at-the-right-time explanations are dramatically different from the Silicon Valley canon, where we "celebrate the strong intuitive leader, the guy who goes with his gut and has a clear vision," as Watts put it in our interview. (His word is sort of the anti-Quora, which is wide of fascinating anecdotal recollections and lessons of the late account of Silicon Valley.)

But successful companies often take as often in green with unsuccessful ventures as they do with early success stories, Watts said. "The conflict between making sense of things and predicting things is where we run into trouble."